Factbox - British Housing poll for September 2012

(Reuters) - British house prices outside London won't rise for at least another year as unemployment stays high and lending conditions remain restrictive, a Reuters poll of analysts found on Tuesday.

Following is a summary of the results of the survey, taken September 11-17.

1a. Please provide your forecasts for full-year change (Dec/Dec or Q4/Q4) in UK house prices.

-1.1 percent was the median for 2012 from 25 forecasts.

0.0 percent was the median for 2013 from 25 forecasts.

1b. Please provide your forecasts for full-year change (Dec/Dec or Q4/Q4) in central London house prices.

3.0 percent was the median for 2012 from 9 forecasts.

2.0 percent was the median for 2013 from 9 forecasts.

2a. Do you think UK house prices will fall from here?

14 said yes

9 said no

2b. If yes, by how much (in percentage terms) will they drop from here?

5.0 percent was the median from 13 forecasts.

Forecasts ranged from 1.0 percent to 40.0 percent.

2c. When will they stabilise?

1 said Q3 2012 1 said Q3 2013 1 said 2014

1 said Q4 2012 2 said Q4 2013 1 said Q1 2017

2 said Q1 2013 1 said Q1 2014 1 said Q2 2018

3 said Q2 2013 1 said Q2 2014

3. What is your forecast for the level of Bank of England mortgage approvals?

50,000 median in 6 months from 18 forecasts.

55,000 median in 12 months from 18 forecasts.

4. On a scale of 1 to 10, where 1 is extremely undervalued, 5 is fairly valued and 10 is extremely overvalued, what best describes current average UK house prices relative to fundamentals?

6 was the median from 22 forecasts.

Forecasts ranged from 4 to 9.

5a. Do you think better-than-expected data from RICS and Nationwide represent the start of a turnaround in the housing market?

2 said yes

15 said no

5b. If data from RICS and Nationwide does not represent the start of a turnaround in the housing market, is the improving data due to one-off factors?

8 said yes

7 said no

* NOTE: Forecasts are based on a variety of house price indexes, including Halifax, Nationwide, Department of Communities and Local Government (DCLG) and Land Registry. Most forecasts in the latest poll are based on Nationwide and Halifax.

Following is a list of contributors:

Bank of Ireland, Barclays Capital, BNP Paribas, Citi, Commerzbank, Council of Mortgage Lenders, Deutsche Bank, Experian, Fathom Consulting, Hometrack, IHS Global Insight, ING Financial Markets, Investec, John Charcol, Jonathan Davis Wealth Management, Knight Frank, Lloyds Banking Group, Monument Securities, NAB, Nationwide, Natixis, NIESR, PwC, Schroders and Scotiabank.

(For a story see)

(Compiled by Aakanksha Bhat)

Source: http://news.yahoo.com/factbox-british-housing-poll-september-2012-145509295--finance.html

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